Understanding Salary-Cap Implications Of Predators’ Top Trade Chips

With the NHL trade deadline at 3 p.m. EST on Friday, many factors are at play for Nashville Predators general manager Barry Trotz.

Beyond simply finding a match in terms of compensation, Trotz will also have to weigh salary-cap implications as it relates to player contracts.

While the same analysis provided below may be applied to any player, I’ll be breaking down the Predators four most likely trade candidates, in my opinion: Tyson Barrie, Alex Carrier, Yakov Trenin, and Kevin Lankinen. All four will be unrestricted free agents (UFAs) this summer.

On deadline day, there will be 42 of 192 days left in the NHL regular season for salary-cap calculating purposes. Remember, teams are able to exceed the 23-man roster limit after the deadline as long as that team remains salary-cap compliant with the additional players.

Additionally, Nashville may only retain salary on one additional player this season as the Collective Bargaining Agreement merits just three per team at any one time, and the Predators are already retaining salary on Ryan Johansen and Mattias Ekholm.

Tyson Barrie

Barrie’s name has been front-and-center in trade whispers since mid-December when news leaked that he wasn’t particularly happy with his role this season. Trotz has made it clear that he has been seeking to accommodate Barrie, but nothing has transpired yet.

Some have stated that Barrie has little value on the trade market, but that’s not necessarily the case. Many of the teams that could use the offensively gifted 32-year-old defender are cap constrained, so if they are wanting to make a move for Barrie, the closer to the deadline the better for them.

Barrie has been solid over the last month when he is in the Predators lineup. I would anticipate Barrie being moved on March 8, but likely not sooner. Let’s take a look at why.

Barrie’s cap hit this season is $4.5 million. Any team that were to acquire him on March 8 would absorb a cap hit of $984,375 without Nashville retaining any salary (42 days times daily cap hit of $23,437.50). Effectively, Barrie will be at his cheapest, salary-wise, on Friday.

Alexandre Carrier

Carrier is likely the Predators hottest trade commodity (Juuse Saros aside). If a contender knew it could re-sign Carrier at a reasonable price, I think he could get a solid prospect or close-to-NHL ready player as opposed to a mid-round draft pick.

Carrier is a solid defenseman with offensive upside. He doesn’t make the flashy plays, but he also doesn’t make many glaring errors either. He’d fit very well on a middle pairing for a contender.

With Spenser Stastney ready for NHL action and Marc Del Gaizo close, tough decisions need to be made on the blue line. This isn’t because Carrier isn’t a good player; it’s for the very reason of him being a good player that he should be moved because of his high value.

Carrier’s cap hit this season is $2.5M. Any team that were to acquire him on March 8 would only absorb a cap hit of $546,875 without Nashville retaining any salary (42 days times daily cap hit of $13,020.83).

Yakov Trenin

Trenin is an interesting case. He’s a gritty player who can occasionally find the back of the net and provide some depth scoring. He also brings a physical presence with a bit of skill — he’s the prototypical power forward, although it would be nice to see him on the scoresheet more often.

The 27-year-odl Russian received his current two-year, $3.4M contract following an arbitration hearing in 2022, so it will be interesting to see where he and his agent find his worth this time around as he enters his first summer of UFA eligibility.

There are two primary questions with Trenin — 1- does head coach Andrew Brunette see him as a good fit in the new offensive system, and 2- what type of value is Trenin looking for, especially since his last deal already arose from arbitration demonstrating there was already a disagreement in his value.

Granted, that summer Trenin was coming off a career year. If either of these questions are not in alignment with the long-term vision, Trenin would be very valuable to a team looking for some grit and depth offensive ability — Vancouver, for example.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman recently mentioned on his “32 Thoughts” podcast that it wouldn’t be surprising to see other players re-sign in addition to Tommy Novak. Could Trenin be another?

If he’s willing to take a pay cut, then perhaps it’s worth the discussion. If he’s wanting a raise or to at the very least keep the same salary, it’s best to offload him now, despite how likeable he is off the ice. I’d be agreeable to a two-year extension around $1.2M per year.

Trenin’s cap hit this season is $1.7M. Any team that were to acquire him on March 8 would only absorb a cap hit of $371,875 without Nashville retaining any salary (42 days times daily cap hit of $8,854.17).

Kevin Lankinen

I’ve been a believer in Lankinen for some time now. I find him to have tremendous value to a team that is lacking in confidence between the pipes and looking to make a run at the postseason. His cap hit is very affordable and he won’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire like Saros.

Lankinen could be a nice additional piece in a bigger move in the event Trotz is seeking to gain some assets on a return as opposed to selling off assets piece by piece to receive mid-round picks in return.

I’ve found it an interesting thought to pair Lankinen with Carrier in any trade that is made. I’d be curious if that would gather any traction from teams; I think it would. Perhaps Edmonton would be intrigued? The numbers can work.

Lankinen’s cap hit this season is $2M. Any team that were to acquire him on March 8 would only absorb a cap hit of $437,500 without Nashville retaining any salary (42 days times daily cap hit of $10,416.67).